Value section

Judged by the closing price · kept apart from the predictions’ record

Closed

Closed until the model passes its test

The value section is empty. It lists a pick only where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's price by a margin, and so far the model has not shown it can do that: in the test on past seasons it did not beat the closing price in any league or market. A new test on live prices was registered before it began, and the section opens only if the model passes it. Until then there is nothing to show, and nothing is lost by waiting.

Sealed until the forward test passes

Every value pick, as published

Since 30 September 2026 · exclusions ignored

Reliability

Exclusions

Nothing has been excluded.

Every value pick, as published

Closing line value
Return on turnover
Calibration error
Published picks

Band	Picks	CLV	Return	Strike rate	Average odds	Break-even	Calibration error	Brier

Reliability

Published probability	Picks	Mean published	Won

Exclusions

How it differs from predictions

Qualifies: The price is longer than the probability deserves, by a fixed margin.
Judged by: The closing price, not how often it wins.
Stake: Quarter Kelly: at most 2% of a declared bankroll a pick, 6% a day.

The predictions’ track record

The value section’s record

Every value pick, as published

Reliability

Exclusions

How it differs from predictions

Every value pick, as published

Reliability

Exclusions